Pembelian kentang Rusia dari China merosot pada bulan Ogos apabila tanaman domestik baharu tiba

China’s potato exports to Russia fell to US$1.8 million in August 2026, according to Chinese customs data analysed by the Russian news agency RIA Novosti. The figure is roughly a quarter below August 2025 and almost 2.5 times lower than in July — a sharp monthly drop that nonetheless looks more seasonal than structural.

Russia slips behind Southeast Asian buyers

Malaysia was the largest buyer of Chinese potatoes in August, taking US$4.2 million worth, followed by Vietnam (US$3.6 million) and Hong Kong (US$1.9 million). Russia ranked fourth, trailing Hong Kong by only around US$0.1 million — a gap within rounding.

RIA Novosti did not publish the comparison values in absolute terms, but they can be derived from the reported changes: August 2025 shipments would have been in the region of US$2.4 million, and July 2026 shipments around US$4.3–4.5 million.

The customs figures are available in value terms only. Without tonnages, it is not possible to calculate an average unit value or to separate the effect of lower volumes from any change in prices.

A July spike, not a collapse

Much of the monthly decline reflects an unusually high July base. By comparison, February 2026 shipments of US$1.97 million were reported at the time as the highest since August 2025; in that month Russia was China’s second-largest potato customer, behind only Kyrgyzstan.

On a year-to-date basis, the trade has in fact grown. According to RIA Novosti, the value of Chinese potato shipments to Russia in January–May 2026 was 1.5 times higher than a year earlier, at US$20.3 million. The August figures therefore point to a seasonal trough as Russia’s own harvest reaches the market, rather than a turn away from Chinese supply.

Legacy of the 2024 shortfall

China became a significant supplier to Russia after a poor Russian harvest in 2024, when drought and frost cut output. Russian business magazine profil reports that Russia bought 167.8 thousand tonnes of Chinese potatoes worth US$62.7 million in 2025, 3.6 times more than a year earlier and a record for bilateral trade. Chinese supplies have gone mainly to Siberia and the Russian Far East, whereas European Russia has traditionally relied on Egypt for early potatoes during the off-season.

Domestic harvest and prices

Russia’s 2026 harvest got off to a faster start. profil reports that by 10 August the organised sector — agricultural enterprises and commercial farms, excluding household plots — had lifted around 560,000 tonnes, 84,000 tonnes more than a year earlier, with yields of 30 tonnes per hectare against 25 t/ha.

Forecasts for the full season diverge. Analysts at AB-Centre expect production to fall by 11.5% to around 7.5 million tonnes because of a smaller planted area, while Alexei Krasilnikov, executive director of the Russian Potato Union, expects a crop of about 8 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s.

Prices remain elevated. As of late August, AB-Centre data put average wholesale potato prices about a third higher than a year earlier, and Rosstat recorded a year-on-year rise of around 35% in average retail prices. On a monthly basis, however, retail prices fell by 16.5% in August, according to the Russian food industry association Rusprodsoyuz, as new-crop supplies arrived.

The fall in Chinese shipments has therefore coincided not with cheaper potatoes year on year, but with the seasonal influx of domestic produce. September and October data, together with the final harvest outcome, will show whether the decline persists.

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Sumber

• RIA Novosti, 20 September 2026 (primary analysis of Chinese customs data): https://ria.ru/20260920/kartofel-2118894524.html
• Izvestia, 20 September 2026: https://iz.ru/2170303/2026-09-20/rossiia-sokratila-import-kitaiskogo-kartofelia
• Profil, 20 September 2026 (2025 trade, harvest progress, AB-Centre forecast): https://profile.ru/news/economy/rossiya-rezko-sokratila-import-kitajskogo-kartofelya-1903410/
• Gazeta, 20 September 2026 (prices, Potato Union forecast): https://www.gazeta.press/business/news/2026/09/20/29354197.shtml
• Finance Mail / RIA Novosti (February and January–May 2026 data): https://finance.mail.ru/article/rossiya-narastila-import-kitajskogo-kartofelya-do-maksimuma-s-avgusta-69202233/ ; https://finance.mail.ru/article/rossiya-narastila-import-piva-iz-kitaya-69213968/
• Tehnowar (Rusprodsoyuz data): https://tehnowar.ru/584316-rossiya_pochti_v_25_raza_sokratila_zakupki_kitayskogo_kartofelya_za_mesyac.html